On the Prediction of Upwelling Events at the Colombian Caribbean Coasts from Modis-SST Imagery

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2019-07Department
Ciencias de la Tierra; Ciencias y Técnicas de la Navegación, Máquinas y Motores Térmicos y Teoría de la Señal...; Física AplicadaSource
Sensors 2019, 19(13), 2861Abstract
The upwelling cores on the Caribbean Colombian coasts are mainly located at the Peninsula
de la Guajira and Cabo de la Aguja. We used monthly averaged Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature as the only information to build up a prediction
model for the upwelling events. This comprised two steps: (i) the reduction of the complexity by
means of the Karhunen–Loève transform and (ii) a prediction model of time series. Two prediction
models were considered: (a) a parametric autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) time series from
the Box–Jenkins methodology and (b) a harmonic synthesis model. The harmonic synthesis also
comprised of two steps: the maximum entropy spectral analysis and a least-squares harmonic analysis
on the set of frequencies. The parametric ARMA time series model failed at the time of prediction with
a very narrow range, and it was quite di cult to apply. The harmonic synthesis allowed prediction
with a horizon of six months with a correlation of about 0.80. The results can be summarized using
the time series of the weights of the di erent oscillation modes, their spatial structures with the nodal
lines, and a high confidence model with a horizon of prediction of about four months.