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On the Prediction of Upwelling Events at the Colombian Caribbean Coasts from Modis-SST Imagery

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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10498/21694

DOI: 10.3390/s19132861

ISSN: 1424-8220

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Author/s
Alonso del Rosario, José JuanAuthority UCA; Vidal Pérez, Juan ManuelAuthority UCA; Blázquez Gómez, ElizabethAuthority UCA
Date
2019-07
Department
Ciencias de la Tierra; Ciencias y Técnicas de la Navegación, Máquinas y Motores Térmicos y Teoría de la Señal...; Física Aplicada
Source
Sensors 2019, 19(13), 2861
Abstract
The upwelling cores on the Caribbean Colombian coasts are mainly located at the Peninsula de la Guajira and Cabo de la Aguja. We used monthly averaged Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature as the only information to build up a prediction model for the upwelling events. This comprised two steps: (i) the reduction of the complexity by means of the Karhunen–Loève transform and (ii) a prediction model of time series. Two prediction models were considered: (a) a parametric autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) time series from the Box–Jenkins methodology and (b) a harmonic synthesis model. The harmonic synthesis also comprised of two steps: the maximum entropy spectral analysis and a least-squares harmonic analysis on the set of frequencies. The parametric ARMA time series model failed at the time of prediction with a very narrow range, and it was quite di cult to apply. The harmonic synthesis allowed prediction with a horizon of six months with a correlation of about 0.80. The results can be summarized using the time series of the weights of the di erent oscillation modes, their spatial structures with the nodal lines, and a high confidence model with a horizon of prediction of about four months.
Subjects
MODIS-SST; upwelling; Colombian Caribbean; prediction model
Collections
  • Artículos Científicos [4849]
  • Articulos Científicos CC. Tec. Nav. [50]
  • Articulos Científicos CC. Tierra [116]
  • Articulos Científicos Fis. Ap. [111]
  • Artículos Científicos INMAR [418]
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This work is under a Creative Commons License Atribución 4.0 Internacional

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