@misc{10498/25721,
year = {2021},
month = {10},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10498/25721},
abstract = {The worldwide decline of seabird populations due to the combined effects of global and regional changes is creating immense challenges for managers and conservationists. Predicting population responses to proposed management strategies could provide the most effective tools to prevent, halt and reverse ongoing declines. System dynamic modelling frameworks are considered particularly relevant to interrelate biological, ecological and environmental characteristics and to predict population trends. A system dynamics model was designed, compiling diverse information concerning a relict population of the European Shag located in western Iberia, to outline the most effective management options for its conservation. The simulations demonstrate that mortality caused by invasive animals and bycatch mortality were the main reasons for the current population decline. Without management interventions, a decrease of 8% was projected for the next decade, which could be mitigated by specific conservation actions. The results show the usefulness of dynamic modelling frameworks to understand local cause-effect relationships and species responses to ecosystem management under changing environmental conditions. We highlight that the framework proposed, after specific parameterization, could be easily adaptable to other species within similar socio-ecological systems.},
organization = {This study was supported by the International Internship Grant Program of the University of Cadiz (EDUCA), Spain for conducting research in internationally renowned centres and the Centre for the Research and Technology of AgroEnvironmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB) of the Universidad de Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Vila Real, Portugal. In addition, the following entities contributed to this work: European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI Operational Competitiveness and Internationalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958, National Funds by FCT -Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020 and INTERACT, Integrative Research in Environment, AgroChains and Technology, Project Norte 2020 45/2015/02. R. B. received support from POPH/FSE, funds and by National Funds through FCT Foundation for Science and Technology under the Portuguese Science Foundation through Doctoral grant FCT_SFRH/BD/102428/2014.},
publisher = {WILEY},
keywords = {population dynamics},
keywords = {ecological indicators},
keywords = {umbrella species},
keywords = {environmental management},
keywords = {marine protected areas},
keywords = {Gulosus aristotelis},
keywords = {seabirds},
keywords = {dynamic modelling frameworks},
title = {What to expect from alternative management strategies to conserve seabirds? Hints from a dynamic modelling framework applied to an endangered population},
doi = {10.1111/acv.12751},
author = {Cruz Muñoz, Andrés de la and Bastos, R. and Silva, E. and Cabral, J.A. and Santos, M.},
}