Weather forecasts for microgrid energy management: Review, discussion and recommendations

Abstract

Meteorological conditions determine the renewable energy generation and, to a lesser extent, the load of microgrids. Weather forecasts are thus necessary to establish optimal plans according to the operational objectives and priorities of each microgid. Weather forecast errors are also responsible for deviations from these plans, thereby being an important source of uncertainty in the scheduling process. Despite this, weather information plays a secondary role in most of microgrid studies. This paper provides a general overview of the use of meteorological data in microgrids, focusing on the implementation of weather forecasts in microgrid energy management systems. Data sources, methodologies, uncertainty approaches and results from a selection of papers with complete information about the forecast context are analysed in detail. Additionally, similarities and differences regarding other energy forecast applications apart from microgrids are discussed. Finally, on the basis of the above, a list of recommendations for future implementations of weather forecasts in microgrid energy management systems is presented.