More robust offshore wind energy planning through model ensembling

Abstract

This research performs an ex-ante assessment of the 19 high potential areas for offshore wind energy (HPA-OWE) allocated in four maritime spatial planning subdivisions of Spain. A 39 geo-statistical criteria pool was developed and categorized into five planning tiers (coexistence, socio-ecological, spatial-efficiency, energy-equity, technical/technological). An ensemble of three multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques coupled with a Monte Carlo method based on a large, uniform number of randomly distributed criteria weights is applied for more robust priority rankings of HPAOWE. The co-existence tier indicates that HPA-OWE should be prioritized in the North Atlantic and in the Levantine–Balearic planning subdivision. The application of machine learning on the MCDA results identified criteria that most influence the rank of each HPA-OWE at planning subdivision. The outcomes highlight the need to include place-based data to better take into account spatial inequalities in coastal regions and re-balance them with socio-economic and energetically privileged coastal territories.