Trends in chronic neck and low back pain prevalence in Spain (2006–2020): differences by sex, age, and social class

Abstract

Purpose: To analyze the evolution of chronic neck and low back pain prevalence in the general Spanish population (≥ 15 years) from 2006 to 2020, examining differences by sex, age, social class, and the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A repeated cross-sectional observational study was conducted based on data from six health surveys conducted in Spain between 2006 and 2020, with samples ranging from 21,007 to 29,478 subjects per survey, reported by the European Statistical System and the National Statistical Institute. Overall and specific prevalence rates were calculated, and linear trends were assessed over time. The potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test, along with prevalence forecasts up to 2020, derived from S-curve models. Results: Between 2006 and 2020, the prevalence of chronic neck pain ranged from 23.64 to 12.3%, while chronic low back pain ranged from 24.01 to 14.73%. A decreasing trend was observed in both conditions, slightly more pronounced for neck pain. This trend persisted even when excluding 2020 data, which was potentially influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, and was independent of health surveys. Forecasts indicated that the actual 2020 prevalence rates were lower (by 3.1–4.4%) than predicted. The prevalence was consistently higher among women, older individuals, and lower social classes, though all subgroups showed similar decreasing trends. Conclusion: The prevalence of chronic neck and low back pain in the Spanish population declined between 2006 and 2020. Subgroup analyses revealed consistent decreases across sex, age, and social class. The COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted the 2020 prevalence rates.