RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 On the Prediction of Upwelling Events at the Colombian Caribbean Coasts from Modis-SST Imagery
A1 Alonso del Rosario, José Juan
A1 Vidal Pérez, Juan Manuel
A1 Blázquez Gómez, Elizabeth
A2 Ciencias de la Tierra
A2 Ciencias y Técnicas de la NavegaciónMáquinas y Motores Térmicos y Teoría de la Señal...
A2 Física Aplicada
K1 MODIS-SST
K1 upwelling
K1 Colombian Caribbean
K1 prediction model
AB The upwelling cores on the Caribbean Colombian coasts are mainly located at the Peninsulade la Guajira and Cabo de la Aguja. We used monthly averaged Moderate Resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature as the only information to build up a predictionmodel for the upwelling events. This comprised two steps: (i) the reduction of the complexity bymeans of the Karhunen–Loève transform and (ii) a prediction model of time series. Two predictionmodels were considered: (a) a parametric autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) time series fromthe Box–Jenkins methodology and (b) a harmonic synthesis model. The harmonic synthesis alsocomprised of two steps: the maximum entropy spectral analysis and a least-squares harmonic analysison the set of frequencies. The parametric ARMA time series model failed at the time of prediction witha very narrow range, and it was quite di cult to apply. The harmonic synthesis allowed predictionwith a horizon of six months with a correlation of about 0.80. The results can be summarized usingthe time series of the weights of the di erent oscillation modes, their spatial structures with the nodallines, and a high confidence model with a horizon of prediction of about four months.
PB MDPI
SN 1424-8220
YR 2019
FD 2019-07
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/21694
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/21694
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 13-abr-2021