RT journal article
T1 Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia
A1 Rey, Wilmer
A1 Ruiz-Salcines, Pablo
A1 Salles, Paulo
A1 Urbano-Latorre, Claudia P.
A1 Escobar-Olaya, Germán
A1 Osorio, Andrés F.
A1 Ramírez, Juan Pablo
A1 Cabarcas-Mier, Angélica
A1 Jigena Antelo, Bismarck
A1 Appendini, Christian M.
A2 Ciencias y Técnicas de la Navegación y Construcciones Navales
K1 tropical cyclones
K1 storm surge
K1 wave setup
K1 runup
K1 Colombian insular Caribbean
K1 Archipelago of San Andres
K1 Providencia and Santa Catalina
K1 flooding
AB Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia's total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was -3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures.
PB FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
SN 2296-7745
YR 2021
FD 2021-11
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/26213
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/26213
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 10-nov-2026