RT journal article
T1 Comparison of the Stability and Accuracy of Deterministic Project Cost Prediction Methods in Earned Value Management
A1 Barrientos Orellana, Alexis
A1 Ballesteros Pérez, Pablo
A1 Mora Melià, Daniel
A1 Cerezo Narváez, Alberto
A1 Gutiérrez Bahamondes, Jimmy H.
A2 Ingeniería Mecánica y Diseño Industrial
K1 accuracy
K1 cost prediction methods
K1 earned value analysis
K1 stability
K1 topological structure
AB Completing a project on time and on budget are essential factors for the success of any project. One technique that allows predicting the final cost of a project is earned value management (EVM). In this technique, different mathematical methods for predicting the final project cost have been proposed over the last 30 years. These formulas make use of activities’ actual costs and durations as the project progresses. EVM is a technique widely used by many project management professionals. However, very few studies have compared the stability and accuracy of the multiple existing methods for predicting the final cost of the project (commonly abbreviated as estimated cost at completion, EAC). This study compares the stability and accuracy of 30 deterministic cost prediction methods (EAC) in EVM. For this purpose, a representative database of 4100 simulated projects of various topological structures is used. Our results suggest that the methods with the simplest mathematical configurations achieve better stability and accuracy performance. Knowing which EVM methods are the most stable and accurate for predicting the final cost of the project will help project practitioners choose the most reliable cost prediction techniques when they are managing their own projects in real contexts.
PB MDPI
SN 2352–4847
YR 2023
FD 2023-05-02
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/29944
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/29944
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 07-nov-2026