RT journal article
T1 Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–May 2021)
A1 Barbeito, Inés
A1 Precioso Garcelán, Daniel
A1 Sierra Fernández, José María
A1 Vegas Azcárate, Susana
A1 Fernández Balbuena, Sonia
A1 Vitoriano, Begoña
A1 Gómez-Ullate Oteiza, David
A1 Cao, Ricardo
A1 Monge, Susana
A2 Ingeniería en AutomáticaElectrónica, Arquitectura y Redes de Computadores
A2 Ingeniería Informática
K1 COVID-19
K1 effectiveness
K1 hierarchical models
K1 logarithmic return
K1 on-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)
K1 pandemic
AB Background: We estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021. Methods: A stringency index (0–1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicative model was fitted. The median of coefficients across provinces (95% bootstrap confidence intervals) quantified the effect of increasing one standard deviation in the stringency index over the logarithmic return of the weekly percentage variation of the 7-days SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, lagged 12 days. Results: Overall, increasing restrictions reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 22% (RR = 0.78; one-sided 95%CI: 0, 0.82) in 1 week, with highest effects for culture and leisure 14% (0.86; 0, 0.98), social distancing 13% (0.87; 0, 0.95), indoor restaurants 10% (0.90; 0, 0.95) and indoor sports 6% (0.94; 0, 0.98). In a reduced model with seven fields, culture and leisure no longer had a significant effect while ceremonies decreased transmission by 5% (0.95; 0, 0.96). Models R2 was around 70%. Conclusion: Increased restrictions decreased COVID-19 transmission. Limitations include remaining collinearity between fields, and somewhat artificial quantification of qualitative restrictions, so the exact attribution of the effect to specific areas must be done with caution.
PB Frontiers Media
SN 2296-2565
YR 2023
FD 2023-04-12
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/31182
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/31182
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 10-may-2026