RT journal article T1 Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario A1 Parras Berrocal, Iván Manuel A1 Vázquez Medina, Rubén A1 Cabos, William A1 Sein, Dimitry V. A1 Bruno Mejías, Miguel A1 Izquierdo González, Alfredo A2 Física Aplicada AB Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean (EMed) is essential in sustaining the Mediterraneanoverturning circulation. Changes in the sources of dense water in the EMed point to changes in the circulation and waterproperties of the Mediterranean Sea. Here we examine witha regional climate system model the changes in the densewater formation in the EMed through the 21st century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Our results show a shiftin the dominant source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water (EMDW) from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea inthe first half of the 21st century. The projected dense water formation is reduced by 75 % for the Adriatic Sea, 84 %for the Aegean Sea, and 83 % for the Levantine Sea by theend of the century. The reduction in the intensity of deep water formation is related to hydrographic changes in surfaceand intermediate water that strengthen the vertical stratification, hampering vertical mixing and thus convection. Thosechanges have an impact on the water that flows through theStrait of Sicily to the western Mediterranean and thereforeon the whole Mediterranean system. PB Copernicus Publications SN 1812-0792 YR 2023 FD 2023 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/31543 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/31543 LA eng DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz RD 13-nov-2026