RT journal article
T1 The potential of publicly available weather forecasts for market operations in aggregated photovoltaic plants
A1 Agüera Pérez, Agustín
A1 Espinosa Gavira, Manuel Jesús
A1 Palomares Salas, José Carlos
A1 Sierra Fernández, José María
A1 Florencias Oliveros, Olivia
A1 González de la Rosa, Juan José
A2 Ingeniería en AutomáticaElectrónica, Arquitectura y Redes de Computadores
K1 forecast
K1 photovoltaic
K1 neuralnetworks, ai
AB Uncertainty in solar generation forecasts affects electricity market operations, forcing producers to bid conservatively and, consequently, reducing the amount of solar energy fed into the grid. This study analyses the potential of aggregated forecasts to reduce the errors of energy generation in medium-sized PV plants. To this objective, publicly available forecasts from the Global Forecasting System were processed with a basic neural network to generate hourly energy forecasts for individual PV plants of 1.1 MW and for the aggregated production of three of them (3.3 MW). The validation was carried out considering typical day-ahead and intraday market horizons, two zones with different atmospheric complexity, and discerning three types of days in terms of the received irradiation. Results show that the aggregation of forecasts would be beneficial as a general strategy in all cases, but especially in the zone of complex atmospheric dynamics and for the day-ahead horizons (36-42 h).
PB Elsevier
SN 1877-0509
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/33621
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/33621
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 10-may-2026