RT journal article T1 Climate change in the Canary/Iberia upwelling region: the role of ocean stratification and wind A1 Vázquez Medina, Rubén A1 Parras Berrocal, Iván Manuel A1 Cabos, William A1 Sein, Dmitry A1 Mañanes Salinas, Rafael A1 Bolado Penagos, Marina A1 Izquierdo González, Alfredo A2 Física Aplicada K1 coastal upwelling K1 climate change K1 ocean stratification K1 Azores High K1 upwelling index K1 Iberian thermal low K1 Canary/Iberia region AB The Canary/Iberia region (CIR), part of the Canary Current Upwelling System, is well-known forits coastal productivity and crucial role in enriching the oligotrophic open ocean through theoffshore transport of the upwelled coastal waters. Given its significant ecological andsocio-economic importance, it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this area.Therefore, the goal of this study is to analyze the climate change signal over the CIR using ahigh-resolution regional climate system model driven by the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LRunder RCP8.5 scenario. This modelling system presents a regional atmosphere model coupled to aglobal ocean model with enough horizontal resolution at CIR to examine the role of the upwellingfavourable winds and the ocean stratification as key factors in the future changes. CIR exhibitssignificant latitudinal and seasonal variability in response to climate change under RCP8.5scenario, where ocean stratification and wind patterns will play both complementary andcompetitive roles. Ocean stratification will increase from the Strait of Gibraltar to Cape Juby by theend of the century, weakening the coastal upwelling all year long. This increase in stratification isassociated with a freshening of the surface layers of the North Atlantic. However, modifications inthe wind pattern will play a primary role in upwelling source water depth changes in thesouthernmost region of the CIR in winter and in the north of the Iberian Peninsula in summer.Wind pattern changes are related to the intensification of the Azores High in winter and to adeepening of the Iberian thermal low in summer months. PB Institute of Physics SN 1748-9326 YR 2024 FD 2024 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/35654 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/35654 LA eng DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz RD 11-nov-2026