RT journal article T1 Anthropogenic pressures driving the salinity intrusion in the Guadalquivir estuary: insights from 1D numerical simulations A1 Sirviente Alonso, Sara A1 Gomiz Pascual, Juan Jesús A1 Bolado Penagos, Marina A1 Sauvage, Sabine A1 Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel A1 Bruno Mejías, Miguel A2 Física Aplicada AB The study presents a dynamic analysis ofthe present-day behavior of salinity concentration in theGuadalquivir estuary and evaluates the impact of anthropogenic pressures on the dynamics of the horizontal salinity gradient. A one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic modelwith an advection and dispersion module is used to study theeffects of human pressure involved in the salinity concentration along the estuary. The observations, which correspondto continuous measurements taken during different oceanographic campaigns from 2021 to 2023, show an excessivesalt intrusion in the estuary (with salinities of 5 psu at 60 kmfrom the mouth) compared to the idealized situation whenanthropogenic water withdrawals are absent. This highlightsthe need to include a water withdrawal term in the simulations to accurately reproduce the system’s real behavior,thereby reflecting the magnitude of anthropogenic pressures.The model successfully reproduces the observations whenthis forcing factor is included. Under constant low-flow conditions, experiments show that increasing water withdrawalsleads to an increase in the horizontal salinity gradient upstream. Similarly, under constant water withdrawal conditions, a decrease in the horizontal salinity gradient is observed when freshwater flows exceed 40 m3s−1. Variationsin anthropogenic pressures, such as water withdrawals foragriculture or the saline industry and reductions in freshwater flow, play a fundamental role in the evolution of salinity along the estuary. Under the current circumstances, theGuadalquivir estuary requires an urgent regulation of theseuses in order to avoid further damage to the aquatic ecosystems. PB Copernicus Publications SN 1812-0792 YR 2025 FD 2025-02-26 LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/36553 UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/36553 LA eng DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz RD 08-nov-2026