RT journal article
T1 The Extremal Value Analysis of Sea Level in the Gulf of Cádiz and Alborán Sea: A New Methodology and the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures
A1 Alonso del Rosario, José Juan
A1 Yin, Danping
A1 Vidal Pérez, Juan Manuel
A1 Coronil Huertas, Daniel José
A1 Blázquez Gómez, Elizabeth
A1 Pavón Quintana, Santiago
A1 Muñoz Pérez, Juan José
A1 Torrecillas, Cristina
A2 Ciencias de la Tierra
A2 Ciencias y Técnicas de la Navegación y Construcciones Navales
A2 Física Aplicada
K1 resilience
K1 Gulf of Cádiz
K1 lborán Sea
K1 xtreme value analysis
K1 ramér-Rao lower bound
K1 akaike information criterion
K1 Bayesian information criterion
AB Rising sea levels and increasing storm wave heights are two clear indicators of climate change affecting coastal environments worldwide. Coastal cities and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to these hazards, highlighting the need for accurate predictions and effective adaptation and resilience strategies to protect human lives and economic activities. This study focuses on the Andalusia coast of southern Spain, from Cádiz to Almería, analyzing twelve years of sea level and wave height records using an Extreme Value Analysis. A key challenge lies in selecting the most suitable statistical distribution for long-term predictions. To address this, we propose a modified application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound and compare it with the Akaike Information Criteria and the Bayesian Information Criteria. Our results indicate that sea level extremes generally follow a Gumbel distribution, while wave height extremes align more closely with the Fisher–Tippett I distribution. Additionally, a high-resolution digital elevation model of the Navantia Puerto Real shipyard, generated with LiDAR scanning, was used to identify flood-prone areas and assess potential operational impacts. This approach allows for the development of practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience. The main contribution of this work includes the estimation of extreme regimes for sea level and wave stations, a novel and more efficient application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound, a comparative analysis with Bayesian criteria, and providing recommendations to improve the resilience of shipyard operations.
PB MDPI
SN 2077-1312
YR 2025
FD 2025-08
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/38007
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/38007
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 10-may-2026