RT journal article
T1 Climate change is associated with a higher extinction risk of a subshrub in anthropogenic landscapes
A1 Conquet, Eva
A1 Ozgul, Arpat
A1 Gómez González, Susana
A1 Ojeda Copete, Fernando
A1 Simpson Paniw, María
A2 Biología
K1 anthropogenic landscape
K1 climate change
K1 disturbance regime
K1 fire adaptation
K1 land-use change
K1 Mediterranean habitat
K1 plant population and community dynamics
K1 population persistence
AB 1. In most ecosystems, the increasingly strong effects of climate change on biodiversityco-occurwith other anthropogenic pressures, most importantly land-usechange. However, many long-termdemographic studies focus on populationsmonitored in protected areas, and our understanding of how climate change willaffect population persistence under anthropogenic land use is still limited.2. To fill this knowledge gap, we assessed the consequences of co-occurringland-useand climate change on vital rates and population dynamics of a fire-adaptedMediterranean carnivorous subshrub, the dewy pine (Drosophyllumlusitanicum). We used 7 years of individual data on 4753 plants monitored in threenatural heathland sites that experience primarily fire as a disturbance, and fiveanthropogenic sites, where fires have been replaced by persistent disturbancesfrom browsing or mechanical vegetation removal as a consequence of land-usechange. All sites are projected to experience increasingly hotter summers anddrier falls and winters. We used generalised additive models to model non-linearresponses of survival, growth and reproduction to rainfall, temperature, size,density and time since fire in anthropogenic and natural dewy-pinepopulations.We then projected population dynamics under climate-changescenarios using anindividual-basedmodel.3. Our findings reveal that vital rates respond differently to climate change inanthropogenic compared to natural habitats. While extinction risks did not changeunder climate change in natural habitats, future higher summer temperaturesdecreased survival and led to population declines and higher extinctionprobabilities in anthropogenic habitats.4. Synthesis. Our results highlight the possible dramatic effects of climate change onpopulations largely confined to chronically disturbed, anthropogenic habitats andprovide a foundation for devising relevant management strategies aiming towardsthe protection of species in human-disturbedhabitats of the Mediterraneanhabitat. Overall, our findings emphasize the need for more long-termstudies inmanaged landscapes.
PB Iain Stott
SN 1365-2745
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39032
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39032
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 04-nov-2026