RT journal article
T1 Assessing the impact of coastal flooding along the northern Yucatan Peninsula associated to sea level rise under different shared socio-economic pathways
A1 Rey, Wilmer
A1 Salles, Paulo
A1 Pintado Patiño, José Carlos
A1 Stacey, Mark
A1 Torres-Freyermuth, Alec
A1 Ruiz-Salcines, Pablo
A1 Jigena Antelo, Bismarck
A2 Ciencias y Técnicas de la Navegación y Construcciones Navales
K1 Numerical modeling
K1 Flood hazard
K1 Coastal exposure to floods
K1 Climate change
K1 IPCC AR6
K1 Flood adaptation measures
K1 Floodings in Yucatan
AB Sea level rise (SLR) inundation threats were evaluated across four barrier island coastal socio-ecosystems in the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. Firstly, a 2-D hydrodynamic model was implemented, using a high-spatial-resolution LIDAR Digital Elevation Model, and was forced with SLR projections (17th- 83rd percentiles) for the year 2100 under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) along with the local micro tide. Model results suggest important impacts in these coastal communities, particularly under the worst-case flood scenario (SSP5-8.5 83rd percentile; spring high tide), projecting flooding in 22–64% of city blocks of those towns by 2100. Moreover, rapid population growth over the past ten years has further increased flood risks. Further analysis focusing on Progreso, the largest coastal town in the study region, flood, population, and land use cover maps were overlaid to exhibit exposed elements to floods. This analysis reveals that large portions of forests (43.45%), shrublands (32.35%), grasslands (21.68%), and artificial surfaces (2.51%), and numerous city blocks in the lee side of the barrier island could be flooded under this worst-case flood scenario. Secondly, different alternatives to reduce the exposure to coastal flooding (levees, inhabitant’s relocation, land elevation build-up, and stilt houses) are discussed. This methodology can be useful to decision-makers for prevention, preparedness, mitigation of SLR impacts, and updating land use in northern Yucatan and other similar coastal regions.
PB Springer
SN 0921-030X
YR 2025
FD 2025-06-19
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39292
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10498/39292
LA eng
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Cádiz
RD 05-nov-2026