European governments’ electromobility plans: an assessment with a focus on infrastructure targets and vehicle estimates until 2030

Abstract

Electromobility offers great potentials to the decarbonisation of the transport sector. The purpose of this study is to analyse the development of electromobility in the European Union (EU) and in the United Kingdom (UK) by 2030. The study is based on the objectives provided by the EU Member States and UK in their national implementation reports, as foreseen by the Directive 2014/94/EU on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure. As the initial data coverage was not full, in order to produce a complete data set on registered electric vehicles and public recharging points, we estimated missing values with different statistical techniques and critical analysis of the initial data. A set of proposed indicators, namely the share of electric vehicles, the density of publicly accessible recharging points, the electric vehicles and recharging points annual growth rates and the sufficiency index, were averaged at EU27+UK level to depict the envisaged evolution of electromobility in the present decade. The results show that the objectives of the countries’ governments are overall less ambitious than the goals defined in the EU Green Deal for 2025 and in the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy for 2030. Most of the indicators vary significantly in the 2016–2030 period, often revealing an increased divergence between the development of electric vehicles and public recharging points. Two policy implications are derived: (i) the use of a combined set of indicators to assess the governments’ electromobility plans could be pursued, while the ratio of ten electric vehicles per recharging point may no longer be a useful benchmark; and (ii) measures supporting the uptake of recharging infrastructure are still needed to mitigate the divergence with electric vehicles and to meet the ambitious objectives of the EU Green Deal and Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy.