Geodynamic Modeling in Central America Based on GNSS Time Series Analysis—Special Case: The Nicoya Earthquake (Costa Rica, 2012) †

Abstract

GNSS systems allow precise resolution of the geodetic positioning problem through advanced techniques of GNSS observation processing (PPP or relative positioning). Current instrumentation and communications capabilities allow obtaining geocentric and topocentric geodetic high frequency time series, whose analysis provides knowledge of the tectonic or volcanic geodynamic activity of a region. In this work, a GNSS time series study is carried out through the use and adaptation of R packets to determine their behavior, obtaining displacement velocities, noise levels, precursors in the time series, anomalous episodes and their temporal forecast. Statistical and analytical methods are studied; for example, ARMA, ARIMA models, least-squares methods, wavelet functions, Kalman techniques and CATS analysis. To obtain a geodynamic model of the Central American region, the horizontal and vertical velocities obtained by applying the above methods are taken, choosing the velocity with the least margin of error. Significant GNSS time series are obtained in geodynamically active regions (tectonic and/or volcanic).