GNSS-Based Models of Displacement, Stress, and Strain in the SHETPENANT Region: Impact of Geodynamic Activity from the ORCA Submarine Volcano

Abstract

The South Shetland Islands and Antarctic Peninsula (SHETPENANT region) constitute a geodynamically active area shaped by the interaction of major tectonic plates and active magmatic systems. This study analyzes GNSS time series spanning from 2017 to 2024 to investigate surface deformation associated with the 2020–2021 seismic swarm near the Orca submarine volcano. Horizontal and vertical displacement velocities were estimated for the preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic phases using the CATS method. Results reveal significant coseismic displacements exceeding 20 mm in the horizontal components near Orca, associated with rapid magmatic pressure release and dike intrusion. Postseismic velocities indicate continued, though slower, deformation attributed to crustal relaxation. Stations located near the Orca exhibit nonlinear, transient behavior, whereas more distant stations display stable, linear trends, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of crustal deformation. Stress and strain fields derived from the velocity models identify zones of extensional dilatation in the central Bransfield Basin and localized compression near magmatic intrusions. Maximum strain rates during the coseismic phase exceeded 200 νstrain/year, supporting a scenario of crustal thinning and fault reactivation. These patterns align with the known structural framework of the region. The integration of GNSS-based displacement and strain modeling proves essential for resolving active volcano-tectonic interactions. The findings enhance our understanding of back-arc deformation processes in polar regions and support the development of more effective geohazard monitoring strategies.